📊 Nasdaq Trader → NQ Options

Real Nasdaq Trader signals (C2, MNQ) mirrored 1:1 into NQ options · Starting capital $25,000 · 741 trades · Generated 12-08-2026 13:53 UTC

1 option per signalIV 18% 1DTEATM Start $25,000
Approach: every real Nasdaq Trader trade (LONG → call, SHORT → put) priced on NQ with Black-Scholes (r 4.5%, no dividend), fixed 1 option per signal, $2.00/contract round-trip costs. No compounding.

Total P&L

+$187,208

Final equity

$212,208

CAGR

+44.1%

Winrate

32.0%

Profit Factor

1.91

Max DD

−10.1%

Losing streak

Worst trade

$-2,221 (-9%)

📈 Equity curve + drawdown

Period Sep 2020 → Jul 2026 · fixed 1 option per signal · equity = start + cumulative P&L (no reinvestment).

📅 Return per year

Year	Trades	Winrate	P&L	Return	PF	Equity end of year
2020	35	29%	+$9,263	+37.1%	2.37	$34,263
2021	154	27%	+$17,789	+51.9%	1.54	$52,052
2022	131	41%	+$70,508	+135.5%	3.16	$122,560
2023	139	27%	+$11,462	+9.4%	1.34	$134,022
2024	129	32%	+$36,286	+27.1%	2.01	$170,308
2025	91	34%	+$15,825	+9.3%	1.53	$186,133
2026	62	35%	+$26,075	+14.0%	1.77	$212,208

Return = P&L of that year ÷ equity at start of year. Equity grows linearly with fixed 1 option per trade (no compounding).

⚖️ Comparison: NQ Futures vs NQ Options

Metric	NQ futures (1c)	NQ options (1c)
Trades	741	741
Total P&L	+$199,097	+$187,208
Final equity	$224,097	$212,208
CAGR	+45.5%	+44.1%
Winrate	35.5%	32.0%
Profit Factor	1.45	1.91
Max DD	−23.3%	−10.1%
Losing streak	12	12
Worst trade	$-4,879	$-2,221

Both with fixed 1 contract per signal, $25,000 start, costs included (NQ future $5/contract, options $2/contract round-trip).

⚠️ Important to know

Backtest uses Black-Scholes with fixed IV 18% — real option prices fluctuate (IV, bid/ask). Results are an approximation.
NQ options are heavy: 1 ATM 1DTE contract costs on average $2,359 (median $1,991) — with $10,000 that is 24% of your capital per trade. That is why the minimum here is $25,000.
Options have theta decay and pin risk: on a sideways day you lose time value even if the direction is right.
Losing streak: maximum 12 losses in a row. Worst trade −$2,221 (-9% of starting capital). The max drawdown of −10.1% is the real risk measure.
This is a backtest, not a guarantee of future results. Losses can exceed what the backtest shows.