Multi-theme systematic trading across structural macro forces: from climate-driven commodity cycles to healthcare adaptation, we identify and trade asymmetric risk/reward opportunities.
We believe that thematic investing — concentrating capital in areas driven by structural macro forces — consistently outperforms broad market exposure over time. From climate patterns like El Niño to structural shifts like GLP-1 healthcare adoption, these forces create definable, forecastable opportunities across global markets.
Within each theme, we employ active trading across stocks, options, and futures — not passive buy-and-hold. Markets systematically misprice the asymmetric risks and opportunities that develop as these themes unfold. By combining directional positions, pairs trades, and options strategies, we capture the full expression of each theme across multiple asset classes.
The result: a diversified, multi-theme portfolio that captures asymmetric upside while controlling downside through rigorous risk management. Theme over market. Active over passive. Confluence over conviction.
We identify structural macro forces before they are fully priced into markets. These are our current active themes.
The developing El Niño weather pattern creates distinct opportunities across global commodity, currency, and equity markets.
El Niño impacts crop yields globally — coffee, cocoa, sugar, soybeans. Positioning ahead of weather-driven supply shocks.
Temperature anomalies drive natural gas demand. Shifts in precipitation impact hydroelectric output and energy prices.
AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD — commodity currencies directly tied to El Niño. Drought in Australia, dairy in NZ, oil in Canada.
USD/BRL (Brazil coffee/soy/sugar), USD/CLP (Chile copper), USD/COP (Colombia coffee), ZAR/USD (SA agriculture) — direct El Niño exposure via soft commodity exports.
El Niño creates ripple effects: weaker AUD lifts USD pairs, higher soft commodity prices lift EM currencies, energy shifts impact CAD and NOK.
The rapid expansion of GLP-1 drug reimbursement is creating structural shifts in consumer behavior — and measurable winners and losers across sectors.
GLP-1 market projected to grow from $76B (2025) to $162B by 2031. Medicare Bridge (July 2026) + France reimbursement open massive new patient pools.
UK data: £780M wiped from grocery bills. GLP-1 users spend 31% less on food, 75% cut chocolate, 72% cut crisps. Supermarkets in newly-reimbursed countries face headwinds.
UK: 29% less drinking frequency, 30% lower pub spend, 34% reduced alcohol cravings. Pernod Ricard (-46% in 2yr) and Rémy Cointreau directly exposed.
64% less snacking, chocolate spend down 18% more than non-users. Categories built on impulse consumption face structural demand destruction as GLP-1 penetration grows.
GLP-1 creates measurable divergences: short supermarkets in newly-reimbursed countries, long healthcare. France (just started) vs UK (mature) offers geographical pair trade opportunities.
