📊 Nasdaq Trader → QQQ Options

Real Nasdaq Trader signals (C2, MNQ) mirrored 1:1 into QQQ options · Starting capital $10,000 · 740 trades · Generated 12-08-2026 15:10 UTC

3 options per signalIV 20% 1DTEATM Start $10,000
Approach: every real Nasdaq Trader trade (LONG → call, SHORT → put) priced on QQQ with Black-Scholes (r 4.5%, dividend 0.5%), fixed 3 options per signal, $2.00/contract round-trip costs. No compounding.

Total P&L

+$65,969

Final equity

$75,969

CAGR

+41.4%

Winrate

30.9%

Profit Factor

1.87

Max DD

−10.7%

Losing streak

Worst trade

$-714 (-7%)

📈 Equity curve + drawdown

Period Sep 2020 → Jul 2026 · fixed 3 options per signal · equity = start + cumulative P&L (no reinvestment).

📅 Return per year

Year	Trades	Winrate	P&L	Return	PF	Equity end of year
2020	35	29%	+$3,272	+32.7%	2.29	$13,272
2021	154	27%	+$5,221	+39.3%	1.42	$18,493
2022	131	38%	+$25,806	+139.5%	3.19	$44,299
2023	139	26%	+$3,212	+7.3%	1.26	$47,511
2024	129	31%	+$12,695	+26.7%	1.95	$60,206
2025	90	33%	+$4,982	+8.3%	1.45	$65,188
2026	62	34%	+$10,781	+16.5%	1.88	$75,969

Return = P&L of that year ÷ equity at start of year. Equity grows linearly with fixed 3 options per trade (no compounding).

⚖️ Comparison: MNQ Futures vs QQQ Options

Metric	MNQ futures (3c)	QQQ options (3c)
Trades	741	740
Total P&L	+$49,725	+$65,969
Final equity	$59,725	$75,969
CAGR	+35.7%	+41.4%
Winrate	32.5%	30.9%
Profit Factor	1.36	1.87
Max DD	−22.8%	−10.7%
Losing streak	12	12
Worst trade	$-1,477	$-714

Both with fixed 3 contracts/options per signal, $10,000 start, costs included (MNQ $5/contract, options $2/contract round-trip).

⚠️ Important to know

Backtest uses Black-Scholes with fixed IV 20% — real option prices fluctuate (IV, bid/ask). Results are an approximation.
0DTE options only exist since 2022; therefore 1DTE is used here (practically tradable).
Options have theta decay and pin risk: on a sideways day you lose time value even if the direction is right.
Losing streak: maximum 12 losses in a row (together −$1,215 = 12.1% of starting capital — those losses were small). The heaviest consecutive losing run was 8 trades (−$2,074). The max drawdown of −10.7% is the real risk measure: a losing streak only says something about the count, not the size.
This is a backtest, not a guarantee of future results. Losses can exceed what the backtest shows.